Hydrological Response to Land Use Land Cover and Climate Variability, and Simulation of Sediment Export and Water Yield in the Catchment Kotri Sindh Pakistan Using SWAT Model

Abstract

The water availability concerns have been increasing due to having significant impacts of Land use land cover change and climate variability. In terms of developing countries, it is one of the biggest challenges to overcome and manage sustainability in the present and future. This study aims to evaluate the change in hydrological components and simulation of sediment yield and water yield on the large-scale basin of Kotri barrage with a change in streamflow due to a change in LULC. This study has been done on the watershed as well as the sub-watershed level to have an accurate estimation and simulation by finding the response of hydrological components towards its natural and human-induced factors using the Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) with high-resolution geospatial and temporal inputs over the Kotri catchment. The sediment and water yield were quantified using 42 years of simulation (1990-2022) on the sub-basin level, projected to LuLc 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2022. The increase in deforestation, agriculture, and settlement areas resulted increase in sediment load in the catchment. The sub-basins 14, 11, 12, and 13, with a high elevation and slope and with less vegetation showed higher sediment load and water yield than the sub-basins with gentle slope and with high natural vegetation cover. The sub-basins 10, 4, and 1 showed high water yield availability compared to basins 2,3,5,6,7,8,9. This may be the result of vegetation differences. However, contained less sediment load than basins 14, 11, 12, and 13. The main objective was to quantify the significant changes affecting catchment and sub-catchment areas, to have a better understanding of the management plan regarding LULC. The simulated data was further projected to prediction using machine algorithms (ARIMA) model for precipitation prediction, and (SARIMAX) model to predict the sediment yield and water yield in the catchment to 2060.