The AUKUS Anvil: Promise and Peril

Abstract

The nascent Australia–United Kingdom–United States security partnership, known as AUKUS, aims to secure for the Royal Australian Navy from the US and the UK a capability in nuclear-powered submarines to bolster allied deterrence in the Pacific. The partnership’s strategic loft and immense ambition have already afforded it almost mythical status. But its pathway is hardly free of potential obstacles, which include limited defence-industrial capacities, production delays, personnel shortfalls, cost overruns and geopolitical change. If AUKUS is seen as strengthening the strategic linkage between the US and Australia, as an American endorsement of a close ally, and as Britain’s claim to great-power status, unravelling it would likely have the reverse effect. As the project unfolds, and particularly as divisive issues become more urgent, maintaining political and strategic alignments among the three capitals will inevitably become more challenging.