What Are the Geo-Economic Consequences of Japanese Demography?

IF 0.4 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Sophie Nivoix, Serge Rey
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

AbstractThe phenomenon of demographic transition and falling birth rates has affected all industrialized countries for many years, and also most emerging countries. However, Japan is undoubtedly the one in which the consequences are already and will be the most extensive. The previously second economic power in the world has been overtaken by China, and the rivalry with this country is not only about industrial development but also about geopolitics. Indeed, the declining population of Japan threatens the long term economic, strategic and geopolitic future of the country. We explore three scenarios for the decades to come. In the first scenario, Japan takes no measures against its demographic plunge and needs to increase its military deterrence to secure its independence. In the second scenario, a moderate openness to immigration may mitigate the geo-economic consequences of the demographic issue. In the third one, the Chinese strategic threat may endanger the independence of Japan itself. DISCLOSURE STATEMENTNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 Source : https://dashboard.e-stat.go.jp/en/timeSeriesResult?indicatorCode=02010100000000100002 United Nations, World population prospects. Accessed 6 July 2022. https://population.un.org/wpp/3 https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01363/Additional informationNotes on contributorsSophie NivoixSophie Nivoix is Professor in Management Sciences at the University of Poitiers, France, and a member of the CEREGE (UR 13564) laboratory. Her work focuses in particular on risk and return, financial equity markets, in Europe and Asia, and on banks. She has published numerous academic articles, book chapters, and co-authored or coordinated several books, including “Firm Internationalization, Intangible Resources and Development”, Routledge, 2023 and “Economic transitions and international business”, Routledge, 2019. Her destinations as a visiting professor include Morocco, Poland, Lebanon, China and India. E-mail: sophie.nivoix@univ-poitiers.frSerge ReySerge Rey is Professor of Economics at the University of Pau & Pays de l’Adour, France, and member of the TREE (UMR CNRS 6031) laboratory. He was previously Director of the Social Sciences and Humanities College. His research interests are in the international macroeconomics, the economics of the exchange rate and applied econometrics, with a particular focus on Pacific economies and in particular Japan, and French Overseas territories. He has published on these issues numerous academic articles, book chapters and co-authored or coordinated several books, including “Sustainable Development in Asia”, Springer, 2022. E-mail: serge.rey@univ-pau.fr
日本人口结构对地缘经济的影响是什么?
摘要人口转型和出生率下降现象多年来一直影响着所有工业化国家,也影响着大多数新兴国家。然而,日本无疑是一个其后果已经而且将是最广泛的国家。曾经的世界第二大经济大国已经被中国超越,与这个国家的竞争不仅是工业发展,而且是地缘政治。事实上,日本人口的减少威胁着该国长期的经济、战略和地缘政治未来。我们将探讨未来几十年的三种情况。在第一种情况下,日本没有采取任何措施应对人口急剧下降,需要加强军事威慑以确保其独立。在第二种情况下,对移民适度开放可能会减轻人口问题的地缘经济后果。在第三种情况下,中国的战略威胁可能危及日本自身的独立。声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1资料来源:https://dashboard.e-stat.go.jp/en/timeSeriesResult?indicatorCode=02010100000000100002联合国,世界人口前景。2022年7月6日访问。https://population.un.org/wpp/3 https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01363/Additional信息作者简介sophie Nivoix sophie Nivoix是法国普瓦提尔大学管理科学教授,也是cerge (UR 13564)实验室的成员。她的研究重点是风险与回报、欧洲和亚洲的金融股票市场以及银行。她发表了许多学术文章,书籍章节,并共同撰写或协调了几本书,包括《企业国际化,无形资源和发展》(Routledge, 2023)和《经济转型与国际商业》(Routledge, 2019)。她作为客座教授的目的地包括摩洛哥、波兰、黎巴嫩、中国和印度。E-mail: sophie.nivoix@univ-poitiers.frSerge ReySerge Rey,法国波城大学经济学教授,TREE (UMR CNRS 6031)实验室成员。他曾任社会科学与人文学院院长。他的研究兴趣是国际宏观经济学、汇率经济学和应用计量经济学,特别关注太平洋经济体,特别是日本和法国海外领土。他在这些问题上发表了许多学术文章和书籍章节,并与人合著或协调了几本书籍,包括《亚洲的可持续发展》,施普林格出版社,2022年。电子邮件:serge.rey@univ-pau.fr
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来源期刊
Peace Review-A Journal of Social Justice
Peace Review-A Journal of Social Justice INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
0.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
57
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