Prediction of extreme climate on the Tibetan Plateau based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

IF 3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI:10.1080/10807039.2023.2260493

Muhadaisi Airiken, Shuangcheng Li, Abudurexiti Abulaiti, Yueyao Wang, Lijin Zhang

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Abstract

AbstractAs a climate-sensitive and fragile region, how the Tibetan Plateau (TP) responds to global warming would have significant implications for its ecological environment and sustainable socio-economic development. A crucial tool for assessing fine-scale climate impacts is the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. This study utilized the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset to determine changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) relative to the baseline warming by 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. By using the Theil-Sen median trend and Mann-Kendall test methods, the research concluded that warming trends and increased humidity were on an upward trend. These changes led to amplified fluctuations in the frequency, intensity, and duration of multiple extreme indices.Keywords: Tibetan PlateauNEX-GDDP-CMIP6baselineTheil-Sen median trend analysisMann-Kendall test AcknowledgementsWe would like to thank the financial support provided by [2019QZKK1001]. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis study is funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (no. 2019QZKK1001).

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基于nex - gdp - cmip6的青藏高原极端气候预测

摘要青藏高原作为气候敏感脆弱地区，如何应对全球变暖将对其生态环境和社会经济可持续发展产生重要影响。评估精细尺度气候影响的一个重要工具是nex - gdp - cmip6数据集。本研究利用nex - gdp - cmip6数据集确定了不同共享社会经济路径(SSP)下极端温度和降水指数相对于基线升温1.5°C、2°C和3°C的变化。通过使用Theil-Sen中值趋势和Mann-Kendall检验方法，研究得出升温趋势和湿度增加呈上升趋势。这些变化导致多个极端指数在频率、强度和持续时间上的波动放大。关键词:青藏高原ex - gdp - cmip6基线thil - sen中位数趋势分析mann - kendall检验感谢[2019QZKK1001]提供的资金支持。我们也感谢匿名审稿人提供的宝贵建议。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。本研究由中国科学院第二次青藏高原科学考察与研究计划资助。2019 qzkk1001)。

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来源期刊

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

9.60

自引率

2.30%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Human and Ecological Risk Assessment provides a resource for professionals researching and assessing environmental hazards to both humans and ecological systems. The editors expect papers published to be original, of sound science, purposeful for risk analysis (assessment, communication, management) and related areas, well written (in English), and a contribution to the scientific literature. The journal''s emphasis is on publication of papers that contribute to improvements in human and ecological health. The journal is an international, fully peer-reviewed publication that publishes eight issues annually. The journal''s scope includes scientific and technical information and critical analysis in the following areas: -Quantitative Risk Assessment- Comparative Risk Assessment- Integrated Human & Ecological Risk Assessment- Risk Assessment Applications to Human & Ecosystems Health- Exposure Assessment- Environmental Fate Assessment- Multi-Media Assessment- Hazard Assessment- Environmental Epidemiology- Statistical Models and Methods- Methods Development/Improvement- Toxicokinetics Modeling- Animal to Human Extrapolation- Risk Perception/Communication- Risk Management- Regulatory Issues