COMPTE CAPITAL ET DÉVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER EN TUNISIE : CAUSALITÉ ET RELATION DE LONG TERME

M. Gritli, S. Rey
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Abstract

Much research has focused on the relationship between financial development and growth, on the one hand, and the relationship between financial integration and economic development, on the other. However, the link between capital account liberalization and financial development remains limited, particularly for the Middle East and North African countries. The purpose of this article is to propose an empirical analysis of this relationship in the case of Tunisia, a country that has chosen for several decades to gradually open up to foreign capital. The econometric study carried out over the period 1986-2014 using a Toda-Yamamoto long-term causality model in conjunction with an ARDL model showed that the capital account openness did indeed have a positive effect on long-term financial development. This result is robust to several specifications of the autoregressive model and to alternative measures of financial development. Nevertheless, the short-term impact of the capital account openness is more limited, especially when considering the effects on the stock market.
突尼斯资本账户与金融发展:因果关系与长期关系
很多研究都集中在金融发展与增长的关系,以及金融一体化与经济发展的关系上。但是,资本账户自由化与金融发展之间的联系仍然有限,特别是对中东和北非国家而言。本文的目的是对突尼斯的这种关系进行实证分析,突尼斯是一个几十年来选择逐步向外资开放的国家。利用Toda-Yamamoto长期因果关系模型和ARDL模型对1986-2014年期间进行的计量经济学研究表明,资本账户开放确实对长期金融发展具有积极影响。这一结果对自回归模型的几个规格和金融发展的替代措施是稳健的。然而,资本项目开放的短期影响是有限的,特别是考虑到对股票市场的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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