Into the Future

Abstract

Chapter 6 introduces two conceptual issues that, in our opinion, will become important in the near future. The first involves the validity of statistical inference. Critics of the conventional null hypothesis significance test generally focus on the undue influence of sample size on p-values and the common misinterpretation of significance levels. Bayesian approaches address and, to some extent, solve both shortcomings. The second conceptual issue involves the use of control time series. As a rule, valid causal inferences require the use of a contrasting control time series. In most instances, no ideal control series is available; however, a synthetic ideal control series can sometimes be constructed from an ensemble of less-than-ideal control time series.