A future-based risk assessment for the survivability of long-range strike systems

Abstract

The United States Air Force has a goal of being able to quickly and successfully deliver combat effects anywhere in the world through long-range strike systems. To examine the survivability of these systems in the future, we began by reviewing broad political and economic trends presented in relevant studies to characterize the technological capabilities of future adversaries. From these studies, we used technical assessments of emerging technologies to generate various threat scenarios; these scenarios were then evaluated using the risk filtering, ranking, and management (RFRM) technique to identify the most severe threats to a future long-range strike air vehicle. The application of RFRM to the problem created a coherent threat hierarchy that enables decision-makers to examine anticipated hostile systems. The results can be subsequently refined through the use of enhanced intelligence data and updated technology projections regarding future threats.