VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL OF LVIV REGION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The concept of sustainable development combines economic, ecological and social approaches to decision-making, taking into account the need to minimize damage to the environment and simultaneously ensure the socio-economic development of the system at the appropriate level. It is obvious that regional sustainable development will always be compatible with global sustainable development, because the sustainability of the system is ensured by the sustainability of its components. The article implements a vector autoregression model of sustainable development of the Lviv region. The model shows three components of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental, but the skin with them is described by a regression level. The gross regional income of the Lviv region was chosen as the outcome variable for describing the economic component of sustainable development, the available income per person was used as a social variable, and the indicator of environmental protection costs is responsible for the environmental component. Statistical data were collected for the years 2000-2022. The application of a VAR type model makes it possible to investigate the simultaneous mutual influence of three variables that describe the sustainable development of Lviv Oblast. The model meets the requirements of adequacy, the parameters of the model are statistically significant, the lag is one year long. The model was used to forecast gross regional income, income per person and expenses for environmental protection in the Lviv region for the following periods. The VAR model confirmed that the GRP in the previous period has the greatest positive impact on the GRP of Lviv Oblast, the disposable income per person is also most affected by the GRP in the previous period, and the costs for nature protection are the largest amount of these costs in the previous period. At the same time, an increase in the population’s income has a negative effect on GRP, and an increase in the costs of nature protection has a negative effect on the population’s income. Despite the fact that Lviv region did not suffer significant damage and even manages to exceed the planned indicators, in the conditions when it is necessary to defend the country in the war, the problems of sustainable development are relegated to another plan, but after the victory of Ukraine, the reconstruction will take place on the basis of sustainable development.