From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison

M. Kose, Prakash Loungani, Marco E. Terrones
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引用次数: 14

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between the global business cycle and national cycles. We first analyse the evolution of the global business cycle and present its main properties during global recessions and recoveries. We then consider how the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle varies over different phases of the global cycle and depends on country-specific features. Our findings collectively portray an intricate liaison between the global business cycle and national cycles. National business cycles are tightly linked to the global cycle, but the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle is much higher during global recessions than expansions. There are significant differences across countries in how they respond to the global cycle as advanced economies appear to be more sensitive to global recessions than are developing economies. Moreover, countries tend to be more sensitive to the global cycle, the more integrated they are to the global economy.
从全球周期到国家周期:一个复杂的联系
本文考察了全球经济周期与国家经济周期之间的联系。我们首先分析了全球商业周期的演变,并介绍了其在全球衰退和复苏期间的主要特征。然后,我们考虑各国周期对全球周期的敏感性在全球周期的不同阶段如何变化,并取决于各国的具体特征。我们的研究结果共同描绘了全球经济周期和国家经济周期之间错综复杂的联系。国家经济周期与全球经济周期密切相关,但在全球经济衰退期间,国家经济周期对全球经济周期的敏感度远高于经济扩张。各国对全球周期的反应存在显著差异,发达经济体似乎比发展中经济体对全球衰退更为敏感。此外,与全球经济一体化程度越高的国家往往对全球周期越敏感。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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