Human Judgment under Sample Space Ignorance

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.