Investment multiplier as a risk generator for economic security of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The subject of this research is the risks generated by multiplicative processes that accompany private and public investment projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security of the country. The author examines the inflationary component of multiplicative processes, which can cause rise in the cost of the investment projects implemented in the sphere of economic security, up to their cancellation. Particular attention is given to multiplicative transfer of income gains from purposefully developed industries to adjacent or loosely related industries. Such a transfer boost the competition for resources between the industries and complicates the implementation of projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security. The following conclusions were made:   - The structure of the process of interaction between the investment multiplier and investment accelerator is self-similar, which simplifies its modeling;   - Multiplicative processes may generate risks in sphere of ensuring economic security of the country;   - In order to substantiate the need for implementing large investment projects, the consideration of generated multiplicative processes is required;   - Modeling and taking into account the multiplicative processes allows transforming them from a risk generator into an instrument that amplifies the steps of the government and private investors on ensuring economic security of the country.   The novelty of this research consists in the approach towards analyzing multiplicative process as a risk generator, which complicates the implementation of investment projects by shifting the impact upon the trajectory of their development.