Is There an Optimization in Bounded Rationality? The Ratio of Aspiration Levels

Martin Beckenkamp
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

Simon’s (1955) famous paper was one of the first to cast doubt on the validity of rational choice theory; it has been supplemented by many more papers in the last three and a half decades. Nevertheless, rational choice theory plays a crucial role in classical and neoclassical economic theory, which presumes a completely rational agent. The central points characterizing such an agent are: (1) The agent uses all the information that is given to him. (2) The agent has clear preferences with respect to the results of different actions. (3) The agent has adequate competences to optimize his decisions. As an alternative to this conception, Simon (1955) himself suggests the concept of “bounded rationality”. In this context, Simon (1956) discusses a principle, which he names the “satisficing principle” (for explanations with respect to this notion cf. Gigerenzer & Todd 1999, p. 13). It assumes that, instead of searching for an optimal action, the search for an action terminates if an alternative has been found that satisfies a given “aspiration level”. It will be demonstrated that although the satisficing principle is nothing but a heuristic, there is a mathematical optimization at work when aspiration levels are used in this kind of problems. The question about the optimal aspiration level can be posed. Optimization within the framework of bounded rationality is possible. However, the way in which such an optimization can be achieved is very simple: Optimal thresholds in binary sequential decisions rest with the median.
有限理性是否存在最优化?吸气水平比
西蒙(1955)的著名论文是最早对理性选择理论的有效性提出质疑的论文之一;在过去的35年里,它得到了更多论文的补充。然而,理性选择理论在古典和新古典经济理论中起着至关重要的作用,它假设一个完全理性的代理人。这种智能体的中心点是:(1)智能体使用所有给他的信息。(2)行为人对不同行为的结果有明确的偏好。(3)代理具有足够的能力来优化其决策。作为这个概念的替代,Simon(1955)自己提出了“有限理性”的概念。在这种背景下,Simon(1956)讨论了一个原则,他将其命名为“满足原则”(关于这一概念的解释,参见Gigerenzer & Todd 1999,第13页)。它假设,如果找到了满足给定“期望水平”的替代方案,那么对行动的搜索就会终止,而不是寻找最优行动。我们将证明,尽管满足原则只是一种启发式,但在这类问题中使用期望水平时,存在数学优化。可以提出关于最佳期望水平的问题。在有限理性框架内的优化是可能的。然而,实现这种优化的方法非常简单:二进制顺序决策中的最优阈值取决于中位数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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