Analysis of China's Pension Financial Sustainability Based on Actuarial Model and Confidence Interval Theory

Abstract

This paper mainly studies the financial sustainability of China's pension system. Focusing on the current pension system, this paper adopts the actuarial model and the strategy of layer-by-layer analysis to establish the macro model of urban and rural residents' pension income and expenses. Thereby, the pension gap is forecasted. At the same time, based on the confidence interval theory, the range of replacement rate and contribution rate is controlled to safeguard the sustain ability of China's pension system. The reliability is 95%. Therefore, the results show that by adjusting the replacement rate and contribution rate can roughly ensure the sustainable development of China's pension system. Improving the pension's overall level and system is also recommended.