Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability

F. Lehner, C. Deser
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities.
内部气候变率的起源、重要性和预测限度
适应气候变化现在已成为许多地区的必要条件。然而,考虑到气候预估不确定性的不同来源(其中主要是内部变率)组合所产生的突发事件,未来几十年区域尺度的适应规划具有挑战性。在这里,我们回顾了内部气候变率的原因和后果,如何在不确定性评估中量化和解释它,以及哪些研究问题仍然是最相关的,以更好地了解其预测限制和对科学和社会的影响。这一观点主张将内部变率置于气候适应科学的聚光灯下,并加强气候模拟和应用社区之间的合作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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