When the East Goes to the Poll: Explaining the Regional Differences in AfD-Voting in the 2021 Federal Election

Abstract

In the 2021 German federal election, the share of East Germans who voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a radical right-wing party, was more than twice as high as the share of AfD voters in West Germany. While most scholars focus on the general determinants of AfD-voting, this paper sheds light on specific variables that could explain these east-west differences. To achieve this, I develop a two-sided argument which considers both the distribution of common AfD-voting determinants and the socialization experiences of East Germans. Multivariate regression with the 2021 GLES data reveals a remaining East bonus in AfD-voting, indicating that the distribution of voting determinants alone cannot explain the regional differences in AfD vote share. Nevertheless, this paper presents a novel structured approach to the issue.