Probabilistic analysis of aircraft structure

Abstract

Probabilistic structural mechanics (PSM) has been promoted for use in the design of products. The author presents the practical methods for applying PSM to critical aircraft component fault-tree analysis. The B-1B Common Strategic Rotary Launcher (CSRL) fault-tree analysis is used as a demonstrative example of mechanical component failure probabilities calculated using PSM. The CSRL components demonstrate how this methodology accounts for aircraft limit loads, limit load exceedances per flight hour, material properties, and stress analysis or structural test results.<>