Predicting the Likelihood that the United States will Implement Solar Radiation Management through an Analysis of Responses to Historical Crises

Abstract

Given the lack of progress on effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the accumulating evidence that the earth is already experiencing the adverse effects of anthropogenic climate change, geoengineering has entered popular and technical discourses as a potential solution. As policy-makers, economists, scientists, engineers, and environmentalists consider various aspects of geoengineering, one of the questions that remains unanswered is how likely is it that humanity will engage in intentional actions to modify the global climate? This paper employs historical analysis to investigate the likelihood that American policy-makers will adopt solar radiation management techniques in order to control the global climate. Historical patterns of crisis response strongly suggest that policy-makers will follow similar decision-making patterns in the future.