Data Driven Modeling Social Media Influence using Differential Equations

Abstract

Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni -dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni -dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution can be accurately modelled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) that reflects the social network influencer interactions. We perform our analysis on 87 active users with corresponding influencers on the COVID-19 topic from 2020 to 2022. The regression results demonstrate that 99% of the variation in the quantified opinions can be explained by the way we model the connected opinions from their influencers. Our research on the COVID-19 topic and for the account analysed shows that social media users primarily shift their opinion based on influencers they follow (e.g., model explains for 99% variation) and self-evolution of opinion over a long time scale is limited.