The effect of operational considerations on the return of electricity generation investment

2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting Pub Date : 2013-07-21 DOI:10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672828

M. Lynch, Aonghus Shortt, R. Tol, M. O’Malley

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Electricity generation investment decisions are driven by the net present value (NPV) of each generation technology. The value of each technology depends, however, not only on the characteristics of the plant in question but also on the rest of the generation portfolio. Thus the correlations between various generation technologies, as well as the characteristics of the technology itself, will drive the final generation portfolio. Monte Carlo analysis is employed to determine the distribution of returns of and correlations between various electricity generation technologies. The operational costs of each technology are arrived by means of a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm. The revenues of each generation unit are calculated according to the marginal cost of electricity provision at each hour; ie a perfectly competitive market is assumed, and the NPV of each generation technology is determined. Significant anti-correlation exists between the value of different technologies depending on operational considerations, while anti-correlation due to varying fuel-types does not feature in the results.

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运营因素对发电投资回报的影响

发电投资决策是由每种发电技术的净现值(NPV)驱动的。然而，每种技术的价值不仅取决于相关电厂的特性，还取决于发电组合的其他部分。因此，各种发电技术之间的相关性，以及技术本身的特征，将驱动最终的发电组合。采用蒙特卡罗分析方法确定了各种发电技术的收益分布和相互关系。通过机组承诺和经济调度算法得到各技术的运行成本。每个发电机组的收益按每小时的边际供电成本计算;即假设存在完全竞争市场，并确定每一代技术的净现值。根据操作考虑，不同技术的价值之间存在显著的反相关性，而由于不同燃料类型而导致的反相关性在结果中没有表现出来。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting

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