A Proposed Quantitative Model for the Computation and Analysis of Waning Immunity for COVID-19 Virus among Human Population

Abstract

Waning Immunity is an important and relevant concept during these days as the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to become endemic in the coming months. By definition, Waning Immunity is the loss of protective antibodies over time and hence necessitates booster shots at regular intervals of time. This quantitative study is on proposition of a model for computing a newly defined metric called Waning Immunity Index (WII). The model takes into account the three group of people namely, susceptible, infected and recovered individuals from the COVID-19 infections. The required data can be collected from the Kaggle repository that contains information on infections, recovery, vaccination and booster doses given on the human population while considering a geographical location. The proposed model and its implementation have thrown light on the spread, control and effect of COVID-19 virus. Results of the proposed model and the measurement can help health officials to seamlessly plan the duration of booster doses administered on vaccinated population. A sample data has been prepared for testing the model and the application of the proposed metrics. Based on the results, it is found that vulnerability of the Waning Immunity increases steeply at some duration and gradually steadies in time.