Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction

Abstract

This is the first year of a three-year Challenge Project with the principal goal of performing the necessary research and development to prepare to provide real time depiction of the three-dimensional global ocean state at fine resolution (1/25° on the equator, 3.5 km at mid-latitudes, and 2 km in the Arctic). The prediction system won’t run in real time until FY12, since this is when the first computer large enough to run it in real time is expected to be available at NAVOCEANO. A major sub-goal of this effort is to test new capabilities in the existing 1/12° global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) nowcast/forecast system and to transition some of these capabilities to NAVOCEANO in the existing 1/12° global system, and others in the 1/25° system. The new capabilities support (1) increased nowcast and forecast skill, the latter out to 30 days in many deep water regions, including regions of high Navy interest, such as the Western Pacific and the Arabian Sea/ Gulf of Oman, (2) boundary conditions for coastal models in very shallow water (to zero depth with wetting and drying), and (3) external and internal tides, the latter with initial testing at 1/12° but transition to NAVOCEANO only in the 1/25° system (all these will greatly benefit from the increase to 1/25° resolution). At 1/25°, the entire first year will be spent on initial climatologically forced non-assimilative simulations that are necessary before we can start data assimilation hindcasts. At 1/12°, we have started exploring improved model configurations with climatologically forced runs and testing improved data assimilation with hindcast cases.