Global Stagflation Shocks: Macroeconomic Challenges and Repercussions

J. Pejčić
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Abstract

This paper analyses key macroeconomic repercussions of the global pandemic and geo-political crises in terms of growing recessionary and inflationary pressures, and finally, the potential occurrence of stagfla­tion. Primarily, stagflation shocks in the 1970s are analyzed and compared to the current crisis for the period January 2020 – July 2022 in the example of selected economies (the United States, Germany and France). Descrip­tive analysis showed that in the observed period, inflationary and recession­ary pressures existed in USA, Germany and France; however, those pressures could not be identified as stagflation, since they did not happen simultane­ously. Namely, during the pandemic crisis, recessionary pressures were pres­ent, since the GDP growth decreased till the first quarter of 2021 in analyz­ed economies, while inflation rates were stable. On the other hand, with the recovery of economies in the second quarter of 2021 inflationary pressures were stronger, intensified by the geopolitical crisis. Therefore, it seems that the most visible anomaly of the global economic system in 2022 is the pres­ence of inflationary pressures.
全球滞胀冲击:宏观经济挑战和影响
本文分析了全球流行病和地缘政治危机的主要宏观经济影响,包括日益增长的经济衰退和通货膨胀压力,以及最终可能发生的滞胀。首先,本文以选定的经济体(美国、德国和法国)为例,分析了20世纪70年代的滞胀冲击,并将其与2020年1月至2022年7月期间的当前危机进行了比较。描述性分析表明,在观察期内,美国、德国和法国存在通货膨胀和衰退压力;然而,这些压力不能被认定为滞胀,因为它们不是同时发生的。也就是说,在大流行病危机期间,存在衰退压力,因为所分析经济体的国内生产总值增长一直下降到2021年第一季度,而通货膨胀率保持稳定。另一方面,随着2021年第二季度经济复苏,通胀压力加大,地缘政治危机加剧了通胀压力。因此,2022年全球经济体系最明显的异常现象似乎是通胀压力的存在。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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