Comparative Performance Evaluation of HEC-HMS and SWAT Models in Stream Flow Simulation: the Case of Bilate and Gidabo Watersheds, Ethiopia

Abstract

Many hydrological models have been developed to simulate watershed hydrology. However, identifying the most cost-effective and efficient hydrological models for a specific watershed with reasonable certainty becomes difficult. The purpose of this study was to compare the stream flow prediction efficiency of the HEC-HMS and SWAT models, as well as the associated uncertainty, in the Bilate and Gidabo watersheds. Model-sensitive parameters being identified, they were calibrated and validated. The parameter uncertainties were analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for HEC-HMS and Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version two (SUF-2) for SWAT. In the case of the HEC-HMS model, the results showed that constant loss rate (CR) was the most sensitive parameter, followed by lag time (LT) for both watersheds. SWAT detected ALPHA_BF in the Bilate Watershed and CN_2 in the Gidabo Watershed as the most sensitive parameters. Overall, both models could adequately simulate the hydrology of both watersheds. Despite their similar modeling capabilities, a comparison analysis revealed that the HEC-HMS model outperformed the SWAT model in simulating streamflow in both watersheds. The findings of this study can help potential model users make risk-informed decisions by selecting a representative model and quantifying associated uncertainty in the modeling field.