USE OF NON-LINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (NAR) TO FORECAST THE FUTURE HEALTH OF SHRIMP FARM

Abstract

Microbial load in terms of Total Coliform (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) were documented in the water of a shrimp culture farm at Malancha region of North 24 Parganas for a period of 36 years (1984-2019). The region receives the wastewater from the city of Kolkata. A steady hike in the microbial load (comprising of both total and fecal coliform) is noticed. The primary reason behind this rise of the microbial load is the run-off from the nearby landmasses that brings various types of wastes in the shrimp farm under investigation. The sustainability of shrimp farms in this region is under question due to the huge microbial load as revealed from the output of NAR.