A Typical Day Based Approach To Detrend Solar Radiation Time Series

Abstract

In this paper we propose a technique for the identification of the deterministic hourly average component of solar radiation time series during a whole year, based on data measured at a given site of interest. The proposed technique is based on the identification of the so-called typical day model and on how its parameters vary throughout the year. The technique is illustrated step by step by an appropriate case study consisting on identification of the solar radiation model at the Aberdeen (Ohio, USA) recording station. The goodness of the identified model is objectively assessed by using a set of global performance indexes including Bias, MAE, RMSE, index of agreement and true-predicted correlation coefficient. Furthermore the possibility of using the identified model as a prediction model is considered and its performances are assessed by an appropriate set of indices capable to measure its capabilities to correctly predict the solar radiation episodes overcoming a prefixed threshold. Results obtained through the reported case study shows the goodness of the proposed approach.