PREDICTING THE UPSHOT OF COVID-19 ON CRUDE-OIL PRICES IN NIGERIA USING MLPARIMA MODEL

Abstract

Researchers and investors have been paying close attention to the application of Artificial Intelligence models to the economics, agriculture and other fields in recent years. This study uses a Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network to anticipate the effect of covid-19 on crude-oil prices, continuing the deep learning trend and also applied the use of time series model known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to validate the result gotten from MLP-ANN. The results produced accurately predicted crude oil prices, and covid-19 data was also analyzed, as well as the association between crude-oil prices and covid-19. Because of the substantial causative association between the coronavirus (number of confirmed cases), crude oil prices, this study is intriguing. Ten years forecast was done using both MLP-ANN and ARIMA and from result gotten, MLP-ANN has accuracy of 96% while ARIMA has 39% accuracy.