A tale of two towns: human security and the limits of post-war normalization in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Abstract

After nearly a decade of concerted international effort, Bosnia-Herzegovina appears finally to have been coerced and cajoled onto an irreversible path towards sustainable peace and eventual European integration. The past several years have seen repeated breakthroughs on Bosnia’s peacebuilding front: a million war-displaced persons have now at least partially reversed the results of ethnic cleansing by returning home, while the elements of a functional Bosnian state—including a single army, state customs and border services, and even a European-style value-added tax—are slowly falling into place. At the same time, the forces of ethnic nationalism appear to be moderating, as not even the return to power of Bosnia’s main nationalist parties in the 2002 national elections has slowed the state-building momentum. Meanwhile, the country is edging closer towards the start of negotiations with the European Union on a Stabilization and Association Agreement. By the time Bosnia celebrates the 10th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords at the end of 2005, Europe’s powder keg may have become just another run-of-the-mill aspirant for EU membership. Despite this apparently good news, optimism about the future remains in short supply among Bosnians themselves. In one recent poll, fully 42 per cent of respondents agreed that the dominant trend in Bosnia is towards disintegration rather than integration, while a separate poll found a similar percentage ready to emigrate at the first opportunity. Voter turnout for the 2002 elections was dismal, and the results widely seen as a signal of popular discontent, if not outright disgust, with the political process. Thus, while Bosnia as a state appears to be doing better—at least in comparison with its near-death experience of the early 1990s—it is worth asking whether Bosnians themselves are benefiting from the advance of their country’s peace process. In other words, beyond the fact that Bosnians are no longer killing each other in large numbers—a far from insignificant accomplishment—where has the Dayton peace process left ordinary Bosnians, both as individuals and as members of the country’s major ethnic groups?