Investigation of building load calculation from the perspective of grand canonical ensemble theory and historical data identification

Abstract

Building energy consumption accounts for over one-third of the global terminal energy, among which the building operation energy consumption of HVAC accounts for the central part, and the energy saving potential is enormous. Load forecasting is significant for building energy management and reducing building energy consumption. The existing building load calculation methods are mainly the mechanism modeling and data-driven prediction methods, which have complex calculation problems, and poor dynamic randomness. In engineering design, the calculation of the infiltration load of the building is simplified, causing specific errors. In this paper, the infiltration load caused by the heat and mass exchange between the air of building inside and the external environment is modeled in detail. It proposes a building load calculation model based on the grand canonical ensemble theory. In the heating and cooling scenarios, the load calculation results of the model and the mechanism model are compared, respectively. The deviation between the two is within the range of 0.191 ± 0.003, combined with the EnergyPlus simulation results to compare and verify the model's accuracy. The load calculation model proposed in this paper clarifies mechanism modeling and can achieve a rapid and accurate evaluation of building load characteristics.