A novel fuzzy based human behavior model for residential electricity consumption forecasting

Abstract

Electric utility companies are interested in load profile (electricity consumption) data when it comes to expansion planning. With the evolution of the smart grid and distributed energy resource concepts, the requirement of load profile data for planning has become critical. Conventional methods of collecting the load profile data, such as surveys and metering, are very tedious and time consuming activities. Consumer demand, as well as continuous technological evolution, contribute to rendering data obsolete in a short period of time. Furthermore, cumbersome data collection processes also pose barriers. In this paper, we present an innovative behavior model for generating electricity consumption load profiles. Our model requires minimum consumer data and can be easily updated to adapt to the changing technology. We demonstrate the accuracy of our model against real world data.