Assessing the impact of wind variability on the long-term operation of a hydro-dominated system

Abstract

Hydro-dominated systems are characterized by uncertainty on the inflows to the reservoirs. Driven by both technological advances and environmental awareness, the share of renewables in the energy production mix has been increasing over the past decades. However, due to their intermittent nature, the integration of renewables entails additional uncertainty, which may negatively impact the operation of the system if the overall risk is not properly appraised. This work analyzes the impact of short-term wind variability on the long-term operation of a hydro-dominated power system based upon two risk measure approaches, namely (i) chance constrained programming, and (ii) conditional value-at-risk. Both approaches are formulated under the framework of stochastic dual dynamic programming. The proposals are tested on a portion of the Colombian power system, in the presence of wind energy and storage units.