Application and Analysis of National Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital staff forecast

Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Humanities Education and Social Sciences (ICHESS 2019) Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI:10.2991/ichess-19.2019.68

Wenjuan Xiong, Shaowu Shen

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Abstract

Objective: To explore the methods for modeling and predicting the personnel of Chinese medicine hospitals in China, and provide reference for the staffing of Chinese medicine hospitals. Methods: Based on the statistics of Chinese medicine from 2002 to 2017 on the number of employees in Chinese medicine hospitals nationwide, three models including regression, ARIMA and exponential smoothing were discussed, and the intraclass correlation co-efficient (ICC) with the largest value was selected as the final optimal model. Result: The final optimal prediction model is expressed as: ARIMA (0, 2, 2). R is 0.990, and the two-way mixed effect model between the predicted value and the observed value has an absolute uniform ICC value of 0.997. Conclusion: The model data has a good fitting degree with the actual data. The selected prediction model is feasible for the prediction of the personnel of the national TCM hospitals in China, and it is of great significance for the staffing reference.

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全国中医院职工预测的应用与分析

目的:探讨中国中医院人员编制的建模与预测方法，为中医院人员编制提供参考。方法:基于2002 - 2017年全国中医医院职工人数统计数据，采用回归、ARIMA和指数平滑三种模型进行探讨，选取值最大的类内相关系数(ICC)作为最终优化模型。结果:最终的最优预测模型表示为:ARIMA (0,2,2)， R为0.990，预测值与实测值的双向混合效应模型ICC值为0.997，绝对均匀。结论:模型数据与实际数据拟合程度较好。所选择的预测模型对于中国国家级中医医院的人员编制预测是可行的，对编制参考具有重要意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Humanities Education and Social Sciences (ICHESS 2019)

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