Oil Price Pass-Through into Consumer Prices: Evidence from U.S. Weekly Data

Abstract

Using U.S. data from Monday of each week, this paper estimates oil price pass-through into consumer prices (PC) and oil price pass-through into gasoline retail prices (PG) in a continuous way. The results show that PC (PG) is about 0.5% (13%) after a week, 1.5% (37%) after three months, and 4.2% (50%) in the long run. The estimated PC is further decomposed into direct PC (representing oil price effects on consumer prices through gasoline retail prices) versus indirect PC (representing oil price effects on consumer prices through ex-gasoline prices). While direct PC contributes more in the short-run, indirect PC contributes more in the long-run, suggesting that long-run oil price effects on consumer prices are mostly through ex-gasoline consumer prices. Despite having distinct pass-through estimates, about three-fourths of weekly volatility in both gasoline retail and consumer prices are explained by oil price shocks in the long run. Important policy implications follow.