Utility Experience Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Operational Planning

2007 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI:10.1109/ISAP.2007.4441588

B. Fardanesh, Pei Zhang, Liang Min, L. Hopkins, B. Fardanesh

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引用次数: 19

Abstract

EPRI has developed a probabilistic risk/reliability assessment (PRA) method under power delivery reliability initiative, which has been successfully implemented by various energy companies in planning studies of growing complexity. Unlike the traditional deterministic contingency analysis, PRA combines a probabilistic measure of the likelihood of undesirable events with a measure of the consequence of the events (that is, the impact) into a single reliability index -probabilistic reliability index (PRI). EPRI internally developed the PRI program that uses contingency analysis results as well as the transmission facility outage information as input to compute and graphically display the reliability indices. This paper presents an application of PRI program to study the transmission network of New York Power Authority (NYPA). This work has demonstrated that the PRA method significantly improves the ability of conducting effective transmission operational planning. The paper represents the collaborative effort between EPRI and NYPA

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为运营计划执行概率风险评估的公用事业经验

EPRI在电力输送可靠性倡议下开发了一种概率风险/可靠性评估(PRA)方法，该方法已被多家能源公司成功地应用于日益复杂的规划研究中。与传统的确定性偶然性分析不同，PRA将不良事件可能性的概率度量与事件后果(即影响)的度量结合为一个单一的可靠性指标-概率可靠性指数(PRI)。EPRI内部开发了PRI程序，该程序使用偶然性分析结果以及传输设施中断信息作为输入来计算和图形显示可靠性指数。本文介绍了PRI程序在纽约电力局(NYPA)输电网研究中的应用。研究表明，PRA方法显著提高了进行有效输电运营规划的能力。本文代表了EPRI和NYPA的合作成果

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2007 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems

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