Decision-making Methodology For Design Of Subsea Line Structures

R. Mayer, I. Goswami
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Abstract

Abstrac t Among the decisions facing the designer of subsea line structures, such as cables and pipelines, are the route, s i z e and type (of pipel ine or cable), method of installation and the means of protection. Each of these dec is ions can s igni f icant ly af fect both system cos t and re l iai l ity. Combined with the uncertainties associated with offshore environmental conditions and manmade hazards, the designer of such systems is presented a complex decision problem. Described herein i s a decision analys is model which considers a l l typical interdependent design variables and inherent uncertainties s im u 1 tan eous ly". Combined with es t imates of costs , bene f i t s , and potential consequences of the various des ign a l ternat ives , the me th adalog y fac i l i tates se lect ion of the most acceptable system des ign. This techno-economic approach has been developed into a detailed model with accompanying software t o aid des igners in se lect ing economic designs of subsea l ine s tructures while achieving acceptable levels of reliability. 1. Goswami Department of Civil Engineering Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21218
海底管线结构设计的决策方法
摘要海底管线结构(如电缆和管道)的设计人员面临的决策包括路线、管道长度和类型(管道或电缆)、安装方法和保护手段。这些因素中的每一个都可能对系统成本和可靠性产生重大影响。考虑到海上环境条件和人为灾害的不确定性,这类系统的设计者面临着一个复杂的决策问题。本文所描述的是一个决策分析模型,该模型考虑了典型的相互依赖的设计变量和固有的不确定性。结合对成本的估计,它的好处,以及各种设计和所有替代方案的潜在后果,编程所面临的问题是如何选择最可接受的系统设计。这种技术经济方法已经发展成为一个详细的模型,并附带了软件,以帮助设计人员选择海底管线结构的经济设计,同时达到可接受的可靠性水平。1. 约翰霍普金斯大学土木工程系,马里兰州巴尔的摩市21218
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