Analysis and forecasting of crime in Russia as a tool of effective public administration in the social sphere

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify the main trends and patterns of crime development in Russia in order to develop effective public administration measures aimed at improving the criminogenic situation. The object of the study is crime in the Russian Federation by categories of crimes. The subject of the study is statistical data characterizing the state and dynamics of crime in Russia. The study was conducted using statistical methods such as the method of relative values, index analysis, time series analysis and forecasting methods, in particular, adaptive methods, correlation and variance analysis methods, as well as methods of visual data analysis.    As a result of the study, an assessment of the state, structure and structural shifts in the distribution of crimes by crime categories over the past 10 years has been made, the influence of a regional factor on the variation in crime rates has been revealed, and the correlation between crime levels by crime categories and socio-economic factors such as unemployment, retail sale of alcoholic beverages per capita has been assessed, the coefficient of migration growth, the Gini coefficient, the coefficient of differentiation by income of the population. Based on the study of the behavior of time series levels of the number of registered crimes by crime categories, modeling and forecasting of indicators using adaptive methods until the end of 2023 were performed.