2016 Outlook of the U.S. and World Wheat Industries, 2016-2025

Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2016-2025 time period using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to remain soft for the next ten years. World demand for both common and durum wheat are expected to remain stable however the large supplies of 2013, 2014 and 2015 will continue to pressure the market. The high price levels in 2010, 2011 and early 2012 will not be maintained because they are the result of a small wheat crop in 2010 and 2012 in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Argentina in 2012. The lower price levels for all commodities will also impact the wheat market. It is expected that wheat production in the FSU will return to normal in the future. World trade volumes of both durum and common wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of common wheat may grow faster than that of durum wheat.