Prospective study using archetypes and system dynamics

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a combination of forecasting methods that enables a holistic understanding of a future situation, given certain influencing variables by a combination of real data and expert knowledge. Design/methodology/approach The proposal combines two well-known methods: first, system archetypes that correspond to generic structures, allowing us to handle model management issues, and second, system dynamics that offers technical support on a computational level to assess different scenarios or problem solutions. Findings The case study considers the situation of the mining industry in Chile and its related variables, including four different scenarios. Based on the proposed methodology, the results indicate that: first, the price of copper is paramount for the industry and its effects are not limited to company profits; second, a long period of downfall in copper prices could halt exploration and development projects. Research limitations/implications Systemic archetypes are still a subject of research and their application in different fields of knowledge continues to increase to improve this simulation approach. Practical implications The case study illustrates the combination of a Vester matrix and initial system archetype models that are enriched using the system dynamics approach. Indeed, the case study aims to understand the consequences of different scenarios based on the problem-driven approach provided by Vester. Social implications The goal of prospective studies of large-scale and complex situations is to model the real situation to obtain solutions that may enhance social welfare. Originality/value The proposed methodology contributes to the existing literature by integrating techniques such as the Vester matrix, system archetype modelling and system dynamics simulation, all of which were proposed previously in the literature as independent techniques.