A Method for Characterizing Uncertainty in Tactical Sea Ice Drift Forecasting

Abstract

Hydrocarbon exploration in the high-Arctic offshore region may require enhanced station keeping capability in ice due to a limited open water summer season and/or the potential for temporary pack ice intrusions during a nominal open water season. Ice management systems have been employed as a means to improve station keeping ability in the presence of drifting sea ice, but accurate ice drift forecasting is central to improving the reliability of any ice management system. A rigorous approach to both (1) quantifying and (2) communicating the uncertainty associated with sea ice drift forecasting is proposed in this paper.