Structural Growth in Labor Costs: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index

Abstract

Wage growth forecasting is a necessary part of forensic economics. In this paper, we present a time series methodology to test whether wage and compensation growth in the United States varies by industry and occupation. If growth varies, then the common use of “all-worker” net discount or wage growth rates would not be accurate for every forensic economic case. Using the Employment Cost Index, we find that total compensation, wage, and benefit growth in some, but not all, industries and occupations has been significantly different from that of the wage growth of all workers. That finding may concern the forensic economist who needs to construct a variety of net discount or wage growth rates. As an alternative to constructing multiple forecasts, this paper provides estimated industry and occupational specific differentials from the growth in all workers' wages.