An Efficient Rainfall Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Method

Abstract

Rainfall is a crucial aspect of the Earth's natural cycle and it is necessary for various activities such as agriculture, water supply and hydroelectric power generation. However excessive rainfall can lead to floods, landslides and other destructive consequences, while insufficient rainfall can cause droughts and water shortages. Therefore accurate estimation of rainfall is essential to manage and mitigate the impacts of rainfall. In this study, the dataset is collected from the NASA Power database [22] to predict the annual rainfall in Mangalore(Karnataka), India. The data is collected from January 1, 2003 to February 04, 2023 using NASA POWER API. The study used four models MLP[15], LSTM, BiLSTM, CNN to predict the daily average precipitation that contributes to the annual rainfall. The input parameters considered for the prediction are maximum monthly temperature, minimum monthly temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed[9]. The model's performance is measured using mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the predicted values on training and testing ratio 80:20. CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) model outperforms and gives the MSE and MAE for the CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) model are 0.0041 and 0.0456 respectively.