Real Options Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in Project Management: A Moroccan Infrastructure Project

Jihane Gharib, A. Berrado, L. Benabbou
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Abstract

The Real Options Valuation allows for the consideration of possible options that are instinctively embedded in investment projects, in which the decision-makers have the flexibility to respond to the outcome of uncertainty. The business managers’ abilities to react to future market conditions tend to impact the value of the investment project by maintaining or improving the upside potential and limiting the downside loss. This process must be regulated by a decision analysis model, capable of capturing the particularities of each project. This paper presents detailed literature review of the real options, includes their area of applications in the literature, then proposes a framework to ease the understanding and the use of this method. Later, a case study of a Moroccan infrastructure project, that had already undergone an evaluation, is outlaid. The paper fully addresses the gaps of the previous study, provides a corrected model for an improved valuation of this project and a suitable use of real options. It also illustrates its application and analyzes the obtained results.
处理项目管理不确定性的实物期权框架:一个摩洛哥基础设施项目
实物期权估值允许考虑可能的选择,这些选择本能地嵌入到投资项目中,其中决策者有灵活性来应对不确定性的结果。业务经理对未来市场状况的反应能力往往会通过保持或提高上升潜力和限制下降损失来影响投资项目的价值。这个过程必须由一个能够捕捉每个项目的特殊性的决策分析模型来管理。本文对实物期权进行了详细的文献综述,包括它们在文献中的应用领域,然后提出了一个框架来简化对这种方法的理解和使用。后来,对一个摩洛哥基础设施项目进行了个案研究,该项目已经过评估。本文充分解决了以往研究的不足,为改进该项目的估值和适当使用实物期权提供了一个修正的模型。说明了该方法的应用,并对所得结果进行了分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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