Nomogram M validity assessment for predicting multiple organ failure and acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass

Abstract

Purpose. To evaluate the predictive value of nomogram M for multiple organ failure (MOF) and acute kidney injury (AKI) after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Materials and methods. This was a retrospective cohort study. The predictive value of nomogram M for multiple organ failure and acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass was evaluated using ROC-analysis. Results. The sample size was 158 patients. The incidence of AKI was 5.7% (9 of 158 patients). The incidence of MOF was 3.8% (6 of 158 patients). AUC nomogram M for AKI was 0.714 [95% CI: 0.555–0.874] (p=0.031); the cut-off value was 12,5 points; the sensitivity was 66.67% and specificity was 82.55%; the odds ratio was 9.46 (95% CI: 2.22–40.30) (p<0.001). AUC nomogram M for MOF was 0.770 [95% CI: 0.594–0.946] (p=0.025); the cut-off value was 12,5 points; the sensitivity was 83.33% and specificity was 82.24%; the odds ratio was 23.15 (95% CI: 2.60–206.20) (p<0.001). Conclusion. Nomogram M has an acceptable predictive value for multiple organ failure and acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass based on the results of the ROC-analysis.