The Effect of Consumers' Expectations in a Booming Housing Market: Space-Time Patterns in the Netherlands, 1999-2000

J. Rouwendal, S. Longhi
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引用次数: 21

Abstract

Even though economic models have been relatively successful in explaining the long run patterns of house prices, they have more difficulties in explaining short run developments of the housing markets. However, the fact that during such 'bubbles' the spatial pattern of house prices, which can mainly be attributed to accessibility differences, usually remains unchanged, suggests that the irrational forces that are presumably responsible for unexplained movements in house prices obey some regularities: they seem to affect the level of house prices, but not their spatial pattern. This suggests that it is worthwhile to consider the explanatory power of psychological variables like those reflecting general (nation wide) feelings of optimism or pessimism. This paper considers the development of Dutch house prices in the years 1999 and 2000, when house prices increased fast. Existing explanations of the long run development of Dutch house prices on the basis of economic fundamentals (notably income and the mortgage interest rate) would suggest a much more modest development of house prices over these years. We also show that commonly used housing market indicators, notably the number of vacancies (houses for sale) and the time on the market, are unable to explain the development of house prices during this period. However, we find a strong relationship between the development of house prices and the Dutch index of consumer confidence.
消费者预期对繁荣房地产市场的影响:1999-2000年荷兰的时空模式
尽管经济模型在解释房价的长期模式方面相对成功,但在解释住房市场的短期发展方面却遇到了更多困难。然而,在这种“泡沫”期间,房价的空间格局(主要归因于可达性差异)通常保持不变,这一事实表明,可能导致无法解释的房价变动的非理性力量遵循一些规律:它们似乎影响了房价的水平,但不影响其空间格局。这表明,值得考虑心理变量的解释能力,比如那些反映普遍(全国范围内)乐观或悲观情绪的心理变量。本文研究了荷兰房价在1999年和2000年的发展,这两个时期的房价增长很快。基于经济基本面(尤其是收入和抵押贷款利率)对荷兰房价长期发展的现有解释表明,这些年来房价的发展要温和得多。我们还表明,常用的住房市场指标,特别是空置(待售房屋)数量和市场上的时间,无法解释这一时期房价的发展。然而,我们发现房价的发展和荷兰消费者信心指数之间有很强的关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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