Probabilistic modelling of electric vehicles' parking lots charging demand

Abstract

Increasing growing of electricity demand and environmental issues bring huge incentives to electric vehicles (EVs) market. EVs will improve the functionalities of present power system. On the other hand, unscheduled high penetration of EVs may have detrimental effects on power system performance. Reliability and stability are the most aspects of grid that face challenges when EVs used widely. As a result there is an exigent need to predict the EVs' customers in order to avoid irreparable effects, especially for the distribution network. In this paper, firstly a EVs' customer behaviour model will be discussed. Secondly, a probabilistic modelling of EVs' charging demand is introduced. This consummate model is on the two bases: technical specifications of different EV classes and historical driving data. Finally, sensitivity analysis is done in order to validate the model performance.