Uncertainty information fusion for flood risk assessment based on DS-AHP method

Abstract

Assessment of flood risk is important to flood disaster forewarning and decision management. However, there are many uncertainty factors that influence flood risk assessment. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an information fusion method based on DS-AHP (Dempster-Shafer and Analytic Hierarchy Process) to deal with uncertainty information, and fuzzy set theory and GIS methods are also employed for spatial analysis and visualization of flood risk assessment. Firstly all possible elements are identified based on AHP method, then the fuzzy set is built and the membership function is constructed based on experts experience method. The results of the function are inputted as the basic probability assignment (BPA) of DS. Finally the preference relations of each decision are determined. The results show that the proposed methods are efficient and demonstrate the potential applications in the decision support of flood risk management.