ANÁLISE DOS IMPACTOS ECONÔMICOS NAS MACRORREGIÕES BRASILEIRAS DOS ACORDOS DE LIBERALIZAÇÃO COMERCIAL ENTRE BRASIL E CHINA

Abstract

This study examined the commercial impacts of formation of an area of free trade between Brazil and China, highlighting the changes in the Brazilian macro-regions, objective that was fulfilled by the simulation of two scenarios: the first assumed the bilateral tariff reduction in 50%, while the second considered the complete tariff elimination between both regions. For the simulations it was used the General Equilibrium Program of Brazilian Economy (PAEG). The results of both scenarios indicate the possibility of gains in terms of well-being for both countries. In Brazil, we observe that the primary products present positive variations in the different macro-regions, while the textile industry and the clothing and footwear sector present the great reductions in terms of production. Affecting mainly the northeast, south and southeast regions, in the case of the textile industry. In relation of the clothing and footwear sector, the South region is the most affected, reducing the production and increasing substantially the import of these products. On the other hand, the Chinese gains centre in the expansion of the exportation of products in the manufacturing industry, result that corroborates the current commercial dynamics between the two countries, with Brazil exporting primary products, of low added value and, importing manufactured products, of greater added value.