Imperfect Price-Reversibility of Passenger Transportation Demand in China

2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization Pub Date : 2014-07-04 DOI:10.1109/CSO.2014.143

Ying Yang, Jian Chai, Qing Zhu, Quanying Lu

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of gasoline and diesel prices on passenger transportation demand. To solve the urban haze problem caused by the consumption of petroleum products by transportation, pricing policies are examined as a primary way to adjust supply and demand. Koyck's distributed lag model is used to analyze the long-term relationship between oil prices and passenger transportation demand, and a simple linear equation is presented to analyze the short-term relationship. In addition, using an estimation based on monthly data from 2010 to 2012, price decomposition techniques are employed to separately analyze the demand when prices rise or fall. The results indicate that passenger transportation demand decreases more rapidly when price rises than when the price falls. However, the demand increases when the maximum historical price increases. Further, passenger traffic demand adjusts more slowly when the diesel price changes than when the gasoline prices change, which indicates that more attention should be paid to gasoline prices when analyzing passenger traffic demand.

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中国客运需求的不完全价格可逆性

本文考察了汽油和柴油价格对客运需求的影响。为了解决交通运输中石油产品的消费导致的城市雾霾问题，本文探讨了价格政策作为调节供需的主要方式。本文采用Koyck分布滞后模型分析了油价与客运需求之间的长期关系，并给出了一个简单的线性方程来分析短期关系。此外，采用基于2010 - 2012年月度数据的估计，采用价格分解技术分别分析价格上涨或下跌时的需求。结果表明，客运需求在价格上涨时比在价格下降时下降得更快。然而，当最高历史价格上升时，需求就会增加。此外，与汽油价格变化相比，柴油价格变化对客运需求的调整更慢，这表明在分析客运需求时应更多地关注汽油价格。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization

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