A cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan

Abstract

This paper estimates the short and long run association between selected macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan for the period of 1985 to 2016. Macroeconomic variables such as exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation have strong implications for the fiscal deficit. This study checks the data for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Method are used to investigate both the short and long run relationships. Results indicated the existence of both short run and long run relationship between the macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit. The findings of the study revealed that exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation are important determinants of fiscal deficit in Pakistan. The study suggested that the government may focus on these factors to overcome fiscal deficit in Pakistan.