CONSIM(Conflict Simulator): Risk, cost and benefit in political simulations

Abstract

The development and use of CONSIM (Conflict Simulator), a computer program designed to heurististically simulate decision making, is described. A typical example is used to evaluate and analyze the methodology of CONSIM. The simulation model is designed for two political opponents, each possessing any finite number of alternatives. The model is constructed utilizing techniques frequently employed in game theory. Probabilities are assigned, using a Bayesian Approach, to sets of alternatives available to the United States and China. Incorporated into the model is the capability of varying the probabilities as the Vietnam Conflict evolves and the re-evaluation of risks, costs, and benefits occurs. CONSIM is easy to use and applicable wherever probabilities may be assigned to each alternative in a mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of alternatives in a dynamic situation.