Risk Assessment Models of the Activities of Companies Implementing R&D Projects

V. B. Minasyan
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Abstract

Companies implementing R & D projects encounter their own unique features: they require large capital investments, long-term implementation, they are associated with high growth potential and a low probability of success, as well as financing problems. Some of the problems encountered have been studied before and are still being investigated. In recent years, there have been studies at the model level of problems on the financing of R & D projects. The problem of risks arising from the implementation of R & D projects has been dealt with at a narrative level in many papers. At the model level, from our point of view, this problem has not yet been sufficiently studied. The model presented in this paper allows to investigate the risks that companies face while implementing R&D projects and to develop a method for assessing the corresponding risks using a modified VaR measure. The formulae have been obtained to calculate this measure and they have been transformed to simple analytical expressions under the assumptions of a uniform distribution of cash flow of the project or by triangular distribution. The constructed model takes into account the most important causes of risks in projects with R&D, which investors intuitively sense. The constructed model allows to evaluate the risks of projects with R & D using the VaR risk measure with all possible parameters present in the model. This model can be used in practice both for preliminary risk assessment of an R & D project even before its implementation and taking a decision on risk-based implementation, as well as for standardising the decision-making process on projects with R & D with a standardised “risk appetite” using VaR risk measuring method.
企业实施研发项目活动的风险评估模型
实施研发的公司;D项目有其独特的特点:资金投入大、实施时间长、成长性高、成功概率低、融资困难。遇到的一些问题以前已经研究过,目前仍在调查中。近年来,在模型层面上对r&d融资问题进行了研究;D项目。实施r&d所带来的风险问题;在许多论文中,D项目在叙述层面上进行了处理。在模型层面,从我们的角度来看,这个问题还没有得到充分的研究。本文提出的模型允许调查公司在实施研发项目时面临的风险,并开发一种使用修改后的VaR度量来评估相应风险的方法。在假设项目现金流量均匀分布或三角形分布的情况下,得到了计算该测度的公式,并将其转化为简单的解析表达式。构建的模型考虑了研发项目中最重要的风险原因,投资者可以直观地感觉到。所构建的模型允许对具有R &D使用VaR风险度量,模型中存在所有可能的参数。该模型既可用于研发项目的初步风险评估;研发项目甚至在实施之前,就基于风险的实施做出决策,以及与研发团队一起标准化项目的决策过程;D具有标准化的“风险偏好”,采用VaR风险度量方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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